Dangote Refinery Eyes Global Jet Fuel Markets as Supply Pressures Grow

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is looking to expand aviation fuel exports as tightening global supplies create new opportunities in international markets.The 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery, located in Lekki near Lagos, is currently operating at full capacity and producing more kerosene than the domestic market can absorb. According to Chief Executive David Bird, the refinery has a sustained surplus available for export, particularly as demand for jet fuel across Africa remains relatively modest compared with other regions.

Global Supply Challenges Create Opportunities

The move comes at a time when global aviation fuel markets are facing increasing pressure. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have tightened supplies of jet fuel, prompting buyers to seek alternative sources outside traditional producing regions.

Europe is among the markets most exposed to supply constraints, creating an opportunity for exporters such as Dangote. The refinery’s growing output is positioning Nigeria as a potential supplier to both regional and international aviation fuel markets.

Dangote has already begun building its presence in the sector. The refinery recently supplied Ethiopian Airlines directly and has started exporting kerosene to international buyers, marking an early step into Africa’s aviation fuel market.

Lower Costs Could Benefit African Airlines

The expansion comes as airlines across Africa continue to grapple with high fuel costs. Aviation fuel accounts for between 30% and 40% of operating expenses for many African carriers, significantly higher than the global average of between 20% and 25%.

Jet fuel prices across the continent also remain elevated, averaging at least 17% above global levels. The availability of locally refined fuel could help improve supply security while potentially reducing costs for airlines operating within Africa.

The refinery has already transformed Nigeria’s domestic fuel market. Once heavily dependent on imported refined products, the country now has a surplus of several fuels. Kerosene production currently stands at around 24 million litres per day, compared with estimated domestic demand of just 2.1 million litres.

Expansion Plans Continue

A growing share of Dangote’s production is already heading to overseas markets. Approximately 89,000 barrels per day of refined products were shipped to Europe during 2025, benefiting from changing trade flows and stronger demand outside Africa. The company is also planning significant expansion. An additional 700,000-barrel-per-day refining project is expected to come online by the end of 2028, while the broader group aims to increase total refining capacity to 2.1 million barrels per day through future investments, including projects in East Africa.