MTN’s network spending reveals a growing gap between South Africa and Nigeria

MTN is still spending billions on its South African network, but the latest numbers show that more of its money is going into Nigeria.The group spent R2.64 billion on its South African network in the six months to June, excluding leases. That is down 17.1% from the same period last year. Nigeria received R7.34 billion. That is a difference of about R4.7 billion between two of MTN’s biggest markets. It is also happening while the South African business is losing customers. MTN’s prepaid customer base fell by about 1.5 million in the first half, while total subscribers dropped 0.7% year on year to 39.5 million. For MTN, the timing of the spending matters.

MTN Group CEO Ralph Mupita says the lower first-half number is mainly about when the company spends its capital. The group expects to spend around R7 billion in South Africa for the full year, with more of that spending coming in the second half. “There is no concern about undercapitalising on South Africa,” Mupita said. If MTN reaches that R7 billion target, the first-half reduction will look less dramatic by the end of the year. But it would still be below the R8.38 billion South African capital expenditure reported by MTN for 2025 on an IFRS 16 basis. MTN has also committed to more local investment, including almost R22 billion in South African connectivity infrastructure over three years. So this is not a story about MTN switching off investment in South Africa. It is about where the bigger share of its money is going.

Nigeria is getting the bigger cheque

MTN spent R19.7 billion on capital expenditure excluding leases across the group in the first half. Nigeria took R7.34 billion of that. South Africa took R2.64 billion. The gap is even clearer when the spending is measured against revenue. Nigeria’s capital intensity was 20.6%, while South Africa’s was around 10.6%. South Africa’s figure was down from 12.6% a year earlier. Nigeria simply has more room for MTN to keep building. Data use is growing, networks need more capacity and the company is still trying to capture customers in a large market. South Africa is different. Most people already have mobile connections. The big operators have been competing for the same customers for years, and the fight is increasingly about what those customers pay.

MTN still has the network

This is what makes the South African numbers interesting. MTN is not losing customers because its network has suddenly become poor. It remains one of the strongest networks in the country. Opensignal gave MTN 11 of 15 awards in its 2025 South African report. Ookla ranked MTN as the country’s fastest mobile network, with a median download speed of 74.76Mbit/s. Icasa also records 99.5% national 4G population coverage. But customers do not pay their monthly bills based on a network ranking. MTN’s South African prepaid revenue fell 3.3% in the first half. Voice revenue fell 10.2%. That tells us where some of the pressure is coming from.

South Africa’s prepaid market has become much more competitive, particularly around price. Capitec Connect is a good example. It does not own a mobile network and uses Cell C’s wholesale capacity, but it has been able to build an offer around cheaper and simpler services. In April, it removed charges for calls between Capitec Connect SIM cards. It recorded 768 million voice minutes in the year to February, up 150%. That is the problem for MTN. A customer can be perfectly happy with MTN’s coverage and still leave because another provider is cheaper. The fastest network does not necessarily win when the customer is counting every rand.

Vodacom is spending more

Vodacom is taking a different approach to its South African network. It invested R11.88 billion locally in the year to March 2026, up from R11.55 billion. It expects to spend around R12 billion in the year ahead, with 5G, network capacity and resilience taking much of the money. Its South African capital intensity was 12.8%, compared with MTN’s 10.6% in the first half. That does not make Vodacom’s network better than MTN’s. It simply shows that the two operators are spending differently in a market where growth is becoming harder.

December will tell us what is really happening

MTN’s full-year numbers will be more useful than the first half figure. If South African capital spending gets to around R7 billion, MTN’s explanation about timing will hold up. If it does not, then the lower spending starts to look less like timing and more like a change in how MTN is allocating money in South Africa. For now, MTN still has a strong network and is still putting billions into it. But Nigeria is getting much more of the group’s capital. And in South Africa, the bigger problem may no longer be network quality. It is keeping customers who have more cheaper options than they did a few years ago.