Implications of AGOA Expiration for African States

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), enacted in 2000, granted duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products from eligible sub-Saharan African countries. The approach by the US was to foster positive trade ties with African states with the opportunity to build economic diversification.

Its expiration, this week on September 30, without a renewal deal on the negotiating table yet, marks a seismic shift in U.S. Africa relations, especially under the Trump administration’s “America First” priorities. This lapse reimposes U.S. tariffs averaging between 10-30% on key exports, compounding bilateral tariff hikes introduced in April 2025.

UNCTAD estimates an 8% reduction in AGOA beneficiary exports by 2029, threatening $10 billion in annual trade volume and hundreds of thousands of jobs. While the immediate fallout could see disruptions in light manufacturing and agro-exports, and may also see it become a catalyst in building intra-African integration via the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Whatever the outcomes, there is no doubt that the trade landscape is being remodelled and our analysis dissects impacts by region and country, highlighting trade growth trends; explores opportunities; reviews diplomatic manoeuvres and assesses effects on other agreements such as the U.S.-DRC minerals pact.

Specific Impacts: Regions and Countries Most Affected

Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports under AGOA reached $8 billion in 2024, nearly half of which originated from South Africa, representing a modest 2-3% of total U.S. imports from the continent but critical for vulnerable economies.

The program’s legacy includes tripling exports from $22 billion in 2000 to $61 billion by 2010, with sustained growth in apparel (up 15% annually from 2020-2024) and textiles. However, the expiration will hit apparel and agro-food the hardest, with these sectors employing over 500,000 workers.

Bilateral tariffs vary: South Africa faces 15% averages, while Lesotho confronts up to 30% on textiles.

Regional Impact Highlights

Southern Africa

Africas biggest economy, South Africa, will bear the brunt of the AGOA cancellation, with Lesotho and Mauritius most exposed. Lesotho’s U.S. exports ballooned from $300 million in 2020 to $550 million in 2024, 90% consisting of apparel under AGOA, amounting to a significant 40% of its GDP. Tariffs could slash this amount by 20-25%, risking 100,000 jobs in garment factories and a 5% GDP contraction in 2026, per UNCTAD models.

South Africa, despite diversification, loses $4 billion in 2024 AGOA-eligible trade (automotive, wine, citrus), grown 10% yearly since 2020. Tariffs compound its 0.5% GDP drag from global slowdowns, affecting 200,000 jobs in agro-processing.

Mauritius

The diversified Indian Ocean Island exporter, saw U.S. trade grow from $400 million (2020) to $650 million (2024), with textiles and jewellery comprising 60% of the total. Post AGOA expiration, the effective15% tariffs may erode $150 million in exports annually, potentially stalling its upper-middle-income aspirations and inflating unemployment from 7% to 10%.

East Africa

East Africa, particularly Kenya and Ethiopia, faces acute shocks in labor-intensive sectors. Kenya’s AGOA exports surged from $600 million in 2020 to $1.2 billion in 2024, a 100% increase, driven predominantly by textiles and apparel (70% share) and horticulture.

As Africa’s top AGOA beneficiary after South Africa, it supports 120,000 jobs; tariffs could wipe out $300 million yearly, hitting Export Processing Zones and raising youth unemployment to 20%. Ethiopia’s trajectory is steeper: U.S. exports rose from $200 million (2020) to $900 million (2024), fueled by H&M and PVH factory investments, creating 50,000 jobs. However, political instability and 25% tariffs threaten a 15% export drop, exacerbating famine risks in Tigray.

Western an Central Africa

West and Central Africa will feel milder ripples. Nigeria’s non-oil exports ($500 million in 2024, up 20% from 2020) in leather and seafood face 10% duties, but oil dominance cushions the blow somewhat. Overall, nine countries now confront 15%+ tariffs (up from three pre-expiration), as per tralac analysis, with light manufacturing output potentially falling 12% continent-wide by 2027.

These disruptions cascade with supply chains fragmented, and with the region risking further Foreign Direct Investments (e.g., 20% less in Kenyan textiles). Impact includes the possibility of lower remittances as migrant workers return due to jobless. Inflation impact may see spikes of 2-3% in import-reliant nations, widening inequality. In countries such as Lesotho, Gini coefficients could rise 5 points

Opportunities from the Fallout

AGOA’s end, while painful, also holds the potential to accelerate trade diversification, long urged by the African Union. The AfCFTA agreement, now operational since 2021 and covering 1.3 billion people, emerges as a key point of development should it be fully embraced. Intra-African trade, currently sits at a mere 18% of total of the total continent’s export market, and this could double to $300 billion by 2030 if tariffs unify and states fast track initiatives.

Exporters like Kenya pivoting to AfCFTA’s zero-duty apparel market, targeting Nigeria and Egypt, could potentially recoup 40% of U.S. losses via regional hubs. UNCTAD highlights how AGOA’s lapse spurs “export sophistication”: Lesotho’s textiles could supply AfCFTA value chains, boosting processing value-add by 25%.

Diversification to non-U.S. partners beckons. The EU’s Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) offer duty-free access for 95% of goods, and Mauritius, already exporting $200 million annually to Europe (up 15% since 2020), could scale to $400 million.

China’s Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) has pledged $60 billion in investments, favouring Ethiopian infrastructure for mineral exports. Opportunities in green transitions are not hard to find on the continent and South Africa’s citrus and wine sectors have opportunity to target Asia’s rising middle class, with trade already up 12% to China in 2024.

Digitally, e-commerce platforms like Jumia enable direct-to-consumer sales, bypassing tariffs with Kenyan SMEs reporting 30% revenue gains.

Brookings notes critical minerals as a wildcard: Africa’s 30% global cobalt share (DRC dominant) attracts U.S./EU investments untied to AGOA, potentially adding $10 billion in FDI. Job creation in renewables could offset 200,000 losses, fostering resilient supply chains.

Diplomatic Attempts by African States

African diplomacy intensified post the US 2024 elections, blending multilateral and bilateral overtures. The African Union (AU) Commission, led by Moussa Faki Mahamat, lobbied U.S. Congress in July 2025 for a 10-year renewal, emphasizing AGOA’s $100 billion cumulative trade boost. Kenya’s President Ruto, during a September UNGA sideline, rallied East African Community (EAC) peers for a joint letter to Trump, securing bipartisan nods from Senators Coons and Risch for a 16-year extension bill.

South Africa’s attempts at diplomacy have largely gone unnoticed by the US having seen relationship with the US sour over the last six months, including having their Ambassador expelled from the US.

Lesotho’s Prime Minister has urged WTO mediation, and Ethiopia, despite eligibility reviews, joined AU efforts via its U.S. embassy. Investors, including Afreximbank, funded D.C. think-tank briefings, yielding Trump’s surprise September 29 endorsement of a one-year extension—sparking optimism but tied to “reciprocal” concessions like minerals access.

Impact on U.S.-DRC Agreements

The U.S. DRC inked a landmark critical minerals pact in June 2025, under the Lobito Corridor framework, securing cobalt and copper supplies for U.S. EVs in exchange for $500 million infrastructure aid. Valued at $2 billion annually, it counters China’s 80% DRC dominance.

AGOA’s expiration has negligible direct impact as this deal is investment-focused, not trade-preference reliant, as DRC’s AGOA exports were minimal ($100 million in 2024, mostly artisanal goods). However, indirect strains loom: expiration signals U.S. retrenchment, eroding trust and complicating enforcement. CSIS warns it could “damage minerals diplomacy,” pushing Kinshasa toward Beijing, potentially delaying $1 billion in U.S. commitments.

Future Outlook: Realistic Prospects for Positive Outcomes

Prospects hinge on U.S. politics. Trump’s one-year renewal tease suggests tactical flexibility, but demands for tariffs on Chinese transshipments risk alienating beneficiaries. Bipartisan bills like the AGOA Renewal Act (S. 133) have advanced in the US Senate, with 70% approval odds by mid 2026, according to Reuters. Yet, realism tempers hope, but realistically AGOA’s expiration shaves 0.5% off Africa’s 3.5% GDP growth forecast, according to the IMF’s projections, with recovery uncertain.

Positives outcomes however could emerge if Africa seizes its own agency. AfCFTA implementation could see intra-Africa trade accelerate, drawing $50 billion in intra-trade by 2028. Renewed AGOA, enhanced with digital and green provisions, could align with AfCFTA for $20 billion mutual gains.

Diplomatic wins, like Trump’s recent pivot, indicate leverage via minerals such as the DRC’s deal is possible for states individually. Ultimately, Africa’s pivot to multipolarity would yield better resilience. Trade diversification should be the preference and goal for African states and be placed above expedient dependency.