Eskom to last for at least five more years

In spite of a recent stretch of nine consecutive days without power interruptions in October 2023, Eskom has issued a sobering warning, projecting that South Africa may have to grapple with at least another five years of load shedding. It’s truly remarkable to consider that 2024 will mark the 17th year since the inception of load shedding in 2007.

Even as the upcoming high school graduates will have come of age in a South Africa marked by power cuts, the prospects for the future appear far from sanguine. Eskom’s most recent Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2024–2028 report conveys a rather discouraging message. As reported by Daily Investor, Eskom’s electricity generation resources are expected to fall short of meeting South Africa’s anticipated electricity demand over the next five years. This projection is based on a rather conservative estimate of electricity demand growth, a mere 0.64%, which is deemed inadequate in itself.

Eskom’s report takes into consideration two critical scenarios related to Eskom’s plant generation capacities: a low Energy Availability Factor (EAF) and a high EAF.

Low EAF – Reflecting a performance decline averaging 50% EAF until 2028.

High EAF – Indicating an improvement to 66% by 2024, with gradual increments reaching 68% by 2028.

The low EAF scenario portends a future marred by severe load shedding, while neither scenario succeeds in attaining the system adequacy benchmark of 20 GWh. The high EAF scenario comes closest to achieving adequacy, with manageable margins. This involves the utilization of diesel for Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT), which is expected to incrementally increase by 6% each year, a measure well within the acceptable range set by the energy regulator NERSA.